The European Commission’s latest enlargement assessment shows that several EU hopefuls are making progress in their journey towards EU membership.
Indeed, Montenegro appears to have one foot in the door.
Montenegro and Moldova
Marta Kos, European Commissioner for Enlargement (in English):
“This year, the enlargement process has delivered more results than at any point in the past 25 years.”
That was Marta Kos, the European commissioner for enlargement, speaking at a press conference following the release of a new Commission report on the subject on Wednesday 4 November. Her comments are shared by Latvijas Radio.
And it’s true that, while North Macedonia remains at a deadlock owing to a spat with Bulgaria, and Turkey and Georgia move further away from EU accession as their rule of law and democracy backslide, the key takeaways from the Commission’s report do actually seem pretty upbeat.
Becoming the 28th member of the EU by 2028 is the goal Montenegro has set itself. And it could even succeed, suggests the Brussels executive. In fact, Montenegro’s accession talks could conclude as early as next month, leaving a year to get all the other formalities done and dusted.
Montenegro’s accession in 2028 is a given, Renew Europe MEP Charles Goerens insists in a conversation with Luxembourg’s 100,7.
Charles Goerens, Member of the European Parliament – Renew Europe, Luxembourg (in Luxembourgish):
“I assume that by the end of 2028, Montenegro will be a member of the EU. They have successfully concluded all negotiating chapters. This means Montenegro has committed to the criteria established in Copenhagen – namely the rule of law, the economic capacity to survive within the European single market, and the adoption of the ‘acquis communautaire’. These three conditions have been met. We cannot begin negotiations with a partner and then, when the outcome of those negotiations proves them right on every point, turn around and say, ‘Oh well, too bad’. That is simply not acceptable.”
Another potential contender in the race is the Republic of Moldova. Goerens is enthusiastic about the prospect of Moldovan membership since he feels that the country’s president, Maia Sandu, would commit firmly to EU values.
Moldova is in fact the country that is making the fastest progress towards EU accession, if not the one that is currently closest to it. If it maintains its current pace of reforms, it could potentially conclude its accession negotiations by early 2028. However, it still needs to strengthen its administrative capacity and implementation of EU rules.
Albania, too, hopes to conclude talks by the end of next year, with the idea of a potential accession in 2029… although it has to be said that substantial reforms are still needed here.
Ukraine
Meanwhile, Ukraine’s progress is – perhaps understandably – a bit slower, with the rule of law, democratic institutions and public administration remaining key areas for reform. Yet, despite the war, Kyiv is being urged to pick up the pace.
In the wake of discussions about Ukraine potentially being offered some kind of ‘associate member’ status instead of full EU membership, the Luxembourgish Renew Europe member once again stresses the importance of Brussels keeping its promises.
Charles Goerens, Member of the European Parliament – Renew Europe, Luxembourg (in Luxembourgish):
“If Ukraine, which was promised by the entire European Union in 2022 that it would become a member relatively quickly, is now told that, at best, only a ‘privileged partnership’ is on the table, I consider this a breach of policy. It is a betrayal; an abandonment of our promise. That is not on. We have given them our word.”
https://100komma7.lu/news/EU-Rapport-Montenegro-am-Endspurt-fir-EU-Member-ze-ginn?pd=radio
Brussels is certainly not keen to put Ukraine off, as Marta Kos makes clear.
Marta Kos, European Commissioner for Enlargement (in English):
“More than four years into Russia’s war of aggression, Ukraine has continued to implement reforms […]. There is no other country in the world advancing towards EU membership under such difficult circumstances. Ukraine’s progress demonstrates the determination of its people to build their future within the European Union.”
Serbia
Many of the Western Balkans are not moving at quite the same pace. But this said, there are changes afoot.
Take Serbia, for example. After more than a decade of political dominance by Aleksandar Vučić, a movement born out of student-led protests won the country’s parliamentary election on 25 October.
But, asks Žinių Radijas, given that Belgrade has long maintained a delicate balancing act between the EU and Russia, is this merely a change of government, or is the country leaning in a new geopolitical direction?
The defeat of Aleksandar Vučić’s right-wing political camp can equally be seen as a defeat for Vladimir Putin, argues Lithuanian political analyst Andžejus Pukšto.
Andžejus Pukšto, Associate Professor of Political Science, Vytautas Magnus University (in Lithuanian):
“Putin has tried in a very calculated way to stir up tensions in the Balkans, but not so much through economic or trade instruments, since Russia doesn’t really have much to offer the region in this regard. Instead, he has relied on political connections. […] This really does look like a defeat for Putin.”
Indeed, Pukšto believes that the recent political developments in Serbia will significantly weaken Russia’s influence in the whole Balkan region.
Brussels, for its part, is hoping for a new chapter in Serbia’s European integration, as Commissioner Kos makes clear.
Marta Kos, European Commissioner for Enlargement (in English):
“Accession negotiations have stalled over the past years. Serbia made further steps backwards on fundamental rights, in particular in the freedom of expression, public administration, and academic freedom. It has the chance for a fresh start. The new Serbian government has an opportunity to turn the page, strengthen democratic institutions and fundamental rights, and take the necessary steps to advance on Serbia’s accession path.”
Yet Lithuanian EPP member Paulius Saudargas warns that public attitudes will not change overnight and that, while the EU is Serbia’s main trading partner, the country’s close ties with Russia may prove difficult to break.
Paulius Saudargas, Member of the European Parliament – EPP, Lithuania (in Lithuanian):
“We cannot expect Serbian public opinion on major geopolitical issues to change dramatically in just a few days. According to opinion polls, only a little over 50 per cent of Serbians view EU membership positively. When people are asked who they trust, the EU receives less than 40 per cent support. At the same time, around 40 per cent regard Russia as a close friend. But where I see a glimmer of light is among young people. Around 60 per cent of those aged around 30 view EU membership positively, compared with only about 30 per cent of over-60s.”
Investigative journalist and academic Dragana Obradović, who spoke to RTBF immediately after the election, points out that Serbia had become one of the main infrastructures in Eastern Europe for Russia’s disinformation campaign – hence it is clear that the EU has an uphill battle ahead to win over hearts and minds.
Dragana Obradović, Associate Professor of East European Languages and Cultures, University of Toronto (in English):
“I think it’s kind of a false dilemma for Serbian society: whether we are part of European cultural space or we should be under Russian interest. That was a direct […] result of the huge propaganda that was coming from the previous government, which was used for their political gains to radicalise society and turn it more towards Russia.”
She thus considers establishing media freedoms to be a cornerstone of reform going forward.
Dragana Obradović, Associate Professor of East European Languages and Cultures, University of Toronto (in English):
“Reforms will be needed in the media sphere, starting of course [with] the public broadcaster, which absolutely was under the political control of the ruling party.”
